Homicides in Colombia: Analysis and Forecast for Six Major Capital Departments and Cities - Research published in English, #11

Colombia is positioned as the country with the second highest homicide rate in Latin America, a reality that unfortunately has not shown improvement since 2014, also ranking as the third highest rate worldwide. This alarming situation motivates an in-depth investigation that, through statistical analysis, seeks to understand the behavior of homicides in men, women and minors during the last five years.
The study focuses on six Colombian departments: Antioquia, Atlántico, Bolívar, Córdoba, Cundinamarca and Valle del Cauca, where homicides will be analyzed by type of instrument used (knives, firearms, explosives and blunt weapons). The results reveal a harsh reality: the homicide rate in Colombia is almost 9 times higher than the average rate in Europe. The research, using tests by Shapiro Wilk and ANOVA, together with the calculation of confidence limits and linear regression for projected homicides, allows a worrying statistical forecast to be made: by 2024 a total of 9, 527 homicides are estimated in Colombia, while by 2025 the figure is reduced to 8, 898.
While the trend shows a slight decline by 2025, the numbers remain unacceptably high. Deep engagement is needed on the part of authorities, civil society, and various sectors to address the root causes of violence and work tirelessly for a safer future for Colombia.